Viral Infection Risk Driven by Ecological Trait Susceptibility to Habitat Heterogeneity

Abstract

Traits for host exploitation that drive the transmission of disease and pathogen emergence are expressed in heterogenous environments. To advance the development of accurate forecasting of infection risk and emergence, determining constraints on ecological strategies for resource use by pathogens over a range of host communities is essential. Infection risk, that is, the likelihood of infection, is approximated by incidence. Here, we examine virus host use by analysing incidence responses to habitat heterogeneity for 18 plant viruses with different modes of horizontal transmission. We estimate virus incidence responses to habitat heterogeneity and compare evolutionary histories and transmission mode of the viruses as drivers of infection risk among four habitats of an ecosystem subject to contrasting levels of anthropic disturbance. Results indicate that variation in plant community composition among the habitats shaped virus incidence responses. In addition to ecological drivers, transmission mode and shared evolutionary history contributed to virus incidence responses to habitat heterogeneity. Evidence of both ecological and evolutionary determinants of host exploitation is an important step towards forecasting infection risk.

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