Abstract
We test the paradigm that in a future warmer ocean, shallower winter mixing will lead to less net primary production (NPP), by investigating whether warming between 2002 and 2018 led to changes in NPP in the Tasman Sea/New Zealand region. The 2002–18 trend in sea surface temperature (SST) was positive over most of the region, and was driven by increasingly warmer summers and marine heat waves (MHWs) rather than year‐round warming. In contrast, the trends in sea surface chlorophyll (SSC) and NPP were generally positive over the Subtropical Front (STF) and in a subtropical band north‐east of New Zealand, but negative elsewhere. Regressions between SSC and SST, and between spring SSC and the coldest SST during the preceding winter, show similar spatial patterns to the SSC trend. We suggest these findings reflect different ecosystem functioning in the subtropical and subantarctic biomes that are separated by the STF. We conclude that any future warming is likely to lead to less production in the Tasman Sea, but more production over the STF. Three recent MHWs had different impacts on production, but generally led to less surface biomass north of the STF and more biomass south of the front.