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Increasing wave heights in the Gulf of Mexico driven by swell waves

Jesbin George; Matthew Hiatt; Clinton S. Willson
Frontiers in Marine Science · Vol. 12 · 2026

Abstract

This study analyzes the climatology, spatial and temporal trends of wind speeds and significant wave height (H s ) of combined wind-seas and swells and H s of separated swells and wind-seas on annual and seasonal scales in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) using 50 years of atmospheric reanalysis data. The H s data showed strong agreement with in-situ measurements, with minimal bias (+/-< 0.08 m) and high correlation (r > 0.9) across both deep and shallow regions, although a slight underestimation is noted for wind speed data. Wind speeds showed seasonal variability in the GoM, though they did not exhibit significant long-term increases, except for a notable decrease (~ -1.0 cm/s/yr) along the southern Florida region. Conversely, the significant wave height of combined wind-seas and swells (H s,c ) exhibits a significant increase, particularly in the western and central GoM (> 0.2 cm/yr). Seasonally, H s,c peaks in winter and is lowest in summer, with notable increases across most parts of the GoM. The increase in H s of swell waves closely mirrors that of H s,c. . In contrast, H s of wind-seas is primarily driven by local winds, does not significantly increase over time, instead showing a strong seasonal coupling with wind speed and its trends across all seasons, suggesting that swell waves are likely responsible for the increase in H s,c . The study highlights that the significant increase in H s,c and H s of swell waves along the GoM are primarily driven by remote swell waves from the Caribbean Sea and westward-propagating waves generated within the GoM, underscoring the growing importance of swell waves in shaping the wave climate and coastal dynamics.

Bibliographic Information

JournalFrontiers in Marine Science
PublisherFrontiers
Publication Date2026-01-12
Publication Year2026
Volume12
Document TypeJournal Article
eISSN2296-7745
DOI10.3389/fmars.2025.1720341
SubjectMarine science; fisheries; aquaculture; pollution; ocean observation; policy

Access Information

NARA Access CoverageOA / free full text
Journal Homepagehttps://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
This article is openly available from the publisher.