Abstract
Accelerated Arctic sea-ice melt is profoundly reshaping global shipping patterns and trade networks, with particularly significant implications for the China–Europe maritime corridor. To assess the resilience of China–EU maritime trade under these evolving conditions, this study develops a dual-dimensional scenario analysis framework that integrates both climate-change and geopolitical risks. We introduce an innovative coupled GTAP-P_D (Global Trade Analysis Project- Equivalent Probability of Delivery Cost) model to simulate the synergistic effects of the Northeast Passage (NEP) and the traditional Suez Canal on bilateral trade flows. Multi-scenario simulations yield three key findings: (1) As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, the NEP provides substantial strategic backup value during Suez Canal disruptions arising from geopolitical conflict, thereby stabilizing trade flows and enhancing system resilience; (2) Realizing dual-channel synergies depends strongly on aligning cargo time-sensitivity elasticity with route characteristics, with highly time-sensitive goods benefiting the most from improved Arctic navigability; and (3) Distinct tipping-point effects emerge across climate pathways. For example, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the NEP could become the primary navigation route in the presence of high-intensity geopolitical risks by approximately 2060. Overall, this study offers quantitative evidence to support sustainable Arctic-route development and the resilient advancement of China–Europe maritime trade, while also providing a generalizable framework for evaluating compound climate–geopolitical risks.