Abstract
To support the “dual-carbon” strategy and develop a carbon-sink-oriented coastal spatial planning framework, this study applies the coupled InVEST–PLUS model to Qingdao using 30 m resolution land-use data. Six spatial drivers (DEM, slope, GDP, population, road, and water proximity) are used to simulate land-use change and evaluate its impact on carbon storage. Model validation results indicate that the PLUS model shows good performance (Kappa ≈ 0.79, FoM = 0.168). The results indicate that (1) during 2010–2020, land-use patterns in the study area changed markedly, characterized by a decrease in farmland and an expansion of architecture area, while forest increased slightly and overall ecological land declined. (2) Total carbon storage dropped from 5.3174 × 10 7 t (2010) to 5.2749 × 10 7 t (2020), with a net loss of 4.25 × 10 5 t. Spatially, carbon storage showed a “clustered-high, contiguous-medium, radial-low” pattern. (3) DEM and water proximity primarily drove the expansion of farmland, forest, grassland, and waters, while population density and DEM dominated architecture growth; bare land expansion was mainly driven by population. Based on these findings, carbon storage transfer pathways are quantified, providing a scientific basis for low-carbon-oriented territorial spatial governance in coastal zones.