Abstract
In recent decades, species distribution models have emerged as essential tools for analyzing the potential effects of climate change on species distributions. This study employed an ensemble model to predict future changes in the distributions of small yellow croaker ( Larimichthys polyactis ) across seasons for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 climate scenarios of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The species distribution model results indicated that the integrated model’s true skill statistics and area under the curve values of the receiver operating characteristic exceeded 0.95. The model demonstrates good predictive performance. Among the four seasons, summer habitat showed a notable reduction, and losses ranged from 14.945% (SSP1-2.6) to 29.080% (SSP2-4.5) by the 2100s. Habitat reduction occurred mainly in the offshore waters of the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas. The center of gravity of the species’ distribution shifted to higher latitudes and exhibited notable seasonal variation. The findings establish a predictive framework for the development of this species, and the prediction results based on scientific analysis will support the optimization of fishery management strategies in the context of climate change and thereby facilitate the sustainable use of fishery resources.