Empirical seismic fragility models for Nepalese school buildings

Abstract

Empirical vulnerability models are fundamental tools to assess the impact of future earthquakes on urban settlements and communities. Generally, they consist of sets of fragility curves that are derived from georeferenced post-earthquake damage data. Following the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence, the World Bank, through the Global Program for Safer Schools, conducted a Structural Integrity and Damage Assessment (SIDA) of about 18,000 school buildings in the earthquake-affected area. In this work, the database is utilized to identify the main structural characteristics of the Nepalese school building stock. For the first time, extended SIDA school damage data is processed to derive fragility curves for the main structural typologies. Data sets for each structural typology are used for a Bayesian updating of existing fragilities to obtain regional models for Nepalese schools. These fragility estimates can be adopted to assess potential seismic losses of the school infrastructure in Nepal. Additionally, they can be used for calibrating loss assessment studies in the wider Himalayan region where the structural typologies are similar.

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