Abstract
Marine conservation areas are an important tool for the sustainable management of multispecies, small-scale fisheries. Effective spatial management requires a proper understanding of the spatial distribution of target species and the identification of its environmental drivers. Small-scale fisheries, however, often face scarcity and low-quality of data. In these situations, approaches for the prioritization of conservation areas need to deal with scattered, biased, and short-term information and ideally should quantify data- and model-specific uncertainties for a better understanding of the risks related to management interventions. We used a Bayesian hierarchical species distribution modeling approach on annual landing data of the heavily exploited, small-scale, and data-poor fishery of Chwaka Bay (Zanzibar) in the Western Indian Ocean to understand the distribution of the key target species and identify potential areas for conservation. Few commonalities were found in the set of important habitat and environmental drivers among species, but temperature, depth, and seagrass cover affected the spatial distribution of three of the six analyzed species. A comparison of our results with information from ecological studies suggests that our approach predicts the distribution of the analyzed species reasonably well. Furthermore, the two main common areas of high relative abundance identified in our study have been previously suggested by the local fisher as important areas for spatial conservation. By using short-term, catch per unit of effort data in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we quantify the associated uncertainties while accounting for spatial dependencies. More importantly, the use of accessible and interpretable tools, such as the here created spatial maps, can frame a better understanding of spatio-temporal management for local fishers. Our approach, thus, supports the operability of spatial management in small-scale fisheries suffering from a general lack of long-term fisheries information and fisheries independent data.