Abstract
This paper examines the character of phytoplankton blooms in a restricted sub-tropical lagoon along the Atlantic coast of central Florida. The results of the 23-year study (1997–2020) provide evidence for multiple types of variability in bloom activity, including cyclical patterns, stochastic events, and most prominently a regime shift in composition and intensity. Cyclical patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña periods) and stochastic events (e.g., tropical storms) influenced rainfall levels, which in turn impacted nutrient concentrations in the water column and the timing and intensity of blooms. In 2011, a major change occurred in the character of blooms, with a dramatic increase in peak biomass levels of blooms and the appearance of new dominant taxa, including the brown tide species Aureoumbra lagunensis and other nanoplanktonic species. Results of quantitative analyses reveal system behavior indicative of a regime shift. The shift coincided with widespread losses of seagrass community and reduced drift algae biomass. A combination of exceptionally low water temperatures in the winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, hypersaline conditions associated with drought conditions, and high light attenuation caused by blooms appear to have contributed to the widespread and protracted decline in seagrass and drift macroalgal communities in the lagoon, leading to shifts in distribution of internal and external nutrient sources toward phytoplankton.