Abstract
Introduction Suspended particulate matter (SPM) is a critical indicator of water quality and has a significant impact on the nearshore ecological environment. Consequently, the quantitative evaluation of SPM concentrations is essential for managing nearshore environments and planning marine resources. Methods This study utilized Sentinel-2’s single band and water index variables to develop a remote sensing inversion model for oceanic SPM in the estuary of the Pinglu Canal in China. Six machine learning algorithms were employed: K-nearest neighbor regression (KNNR), AdaBoost regression (ABR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR), and light generalized boosted regression (LGBM). The model with the optimal performance was then selected for further analysis. This research applied the established model to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of SPM from 2021 to 2023. Results The findings indicated that (1) the XGBR algorithm exhibited superior performance (R 2 = 0.9042, RMSE = 3.0258 mg/L), with LGBM (R 2 =0.8258, RMSE = 4.0813 mg/L) and GBR (R 2 = 0.823, RMSE = 4.3477 mg/L) also demonstrating effective fitting. However, the ABR, RF, and KNNR algorithms produced less satisfactory fitting results. (2) Additionally, the study revealed that the combination of input variables in the XGBR algorithm was more accurate than single-variable inputs. (3) The contribution of single-band variables to the XGBR algorithm surpassed that of water index variables, with B12, B4, and B11 emerging as the top three influential variables in the model. (4) The annual SPM concentration in the study area exhibited an overall increasing trend, while its spatial distribution generally decreased from the estuary toward the Maowei Sea and Qinzhou Bay. Discussion The combination of Sentinel-2 data and XGBR model has shown good performance in retrieving SPM concentration, providing a new method and approach for large-scale estimation of SPM concentration.