Spatial associations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations with climate exposure, green cover, and socioeconomic advantage in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

Urban areas face growing climate pressures from projected heat increases and rapid urbanisation, yet empirical studies assessing Indigenous population distributions relative to climate exposure and green infrastructure remain scarce. This study examines spatial associations between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population sizes and urban environmental conditions across 614 urban areas in New South Wales, Australia, testing whether expected patterns of climate and green space marginalisation are evident. Using Generalised Additive Mixed Models, we quantified relationships with projected heat exposure (ΔMTWM), green cover percentage, green space accessibility, total population size, and socioeconomic advantage (Index of Relative Socio‑economic Advantage and Disadvantage, IRSAD), contrasting Aboriginal versus non‑Aboriginal population patterns using identical model parameters. Contrary to marginalisation expectations, Aboriginal populations showed positive non‑linear associations with higher ΔMTWM, greater green cover and larger total population size, and a positive linear relationship with IRSAD. Green cover significantly influenced Aboriginal, but not non‑Aboriginal, population distributions, while accessibility showed no significant associations for either group. Regional variation explained substantial additional variation in population distributions. These unexpected co‑location patterns challenge simple disadvantage narratives, revealing complex spatial dynamics potentially driven by historical settlement, contemporary planning or cultural preferences. These findings highlight the need for fine-scale, longitudinal and community research to inform urban climate adaptation planning. Our study emphasises the importance of considering local context and interacting factors when assessing climate change exposure and designing adaptation policies for Indigenous communities.

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