Integrated assessment of coastal socio-environmental vulnerability in the southwestern Colombian Caribbean

Abstract

Coastal vulnerability is a critical determinant of risk in littoral systems, particularly in regions where seasonal environmental forcing intersects with persistent socioeconomic fragility. This study assesses the integrated socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability (SEVI) of 18 microzones along the Urabá coast in the Colombian Caribbean. Grounded in the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity framework, the methodology utilizes a seasonally explicit approach to differentiate vulnerability patterns between dry and wet periods over a 30-year climatological baseline. The Environmental Vulnerability Sub-Index (EVI) incorporates variables such as significant wave height and precipitation, while the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Sub-Index (SVI) employs census-derived proxies for demographic pressure and structural precarity. The results reveal a clear alongshore gradient, with the northern sector exhibiting consistently high vulnerability due to direct open-sea exposure and urban settlements with precarious conditions. Analysis shows that while environmental stressors alternate in dominance, wave energy in the dry season and precipitation in the wet season, the overall spatial configuration of vulnerability remains remarkably stable. This persistence underscores the structuring role of socioeconomic conditions, such as high population density and limited adaptive capacity (socioeconomic stratum 1), in governing coastal risk. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the SEVI rankings across different weighting schemes. These findings highlight that effective climate change adaptation in the Greater Caribbean must transcend hazard mitigation to address the underlying social determinants of vulnerability. The proposed microzone-based framework provides a transferable and parsimonious decision-support tool for spatially targeted coastal management and risk-informed land-use planning in data-limited regions.

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