Abstract
This study evaluated the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of a small watershed in the Tropical Andean Plateau in Colombia. We used modeling tool Hydro-BID, a specialized software with hydrological and climatic modules that can evaluate the hydrological processes to generate models. This tool has the potential to inform water resource management and planning in Latin America and the Caribbean. To simulate future hydrologic flows, we selected the MOI-ESM-MR-CORDEX model for precipitation and the MOI-ESM-MR model for temperature. Projections for precipitation and temperature on a reduced scale were calculated using a method based on chaos theory for three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios designated 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 based on global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). The results of the calibration process showed that the evaluated hydrological parameters are better represented by the model at a monthly scale. In addition, the climate change model showed an estimated increase in the average streamflow of 2.1% to 6% compared to a base scenario that represented current conditions (1.22 m 3 s −1 ), with flow rates of 1.28 m 3 s −1 , 1.24 m 3 s −1 , and 1.29 m 3 s −1 for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. These values, associated with a significant increase in precipitation and a decrease in temperature, are expected for the Tropical Andean Plateau watersheds of Colombia. The results obtained in this study are useful for water resource planners and policy makers, especially for the management of water supply infrastructure, flood risk, and agricultural productivity in the area.