Abstract
Coastal erosion is controlled by two sets of factors, one related to storm intensity and the other related to a location’s vulnerability. This study investigated the role of each set in controlling dune erosion based on data compiled for eighteen historical events in New Jersey. Here, storm intensity was characterized by the Storm Erosion Index (SEI) and Peak Erosion Intensity (PEI), factors used to describe a storm’s cumulative erosion potential and maximum erosive power, respectively. In this study, a direct relationship between these parameters, beach morphology characteristics, and expected dune response was established through a classification tree ensemble. Of the seven input parameters, PEI was the most important, indicating that peak storm conditions with time scales on the order of hours were the most critical in predicting dune impacts. Results suggested that PEI, alone, was successful in distinguishing between storms most likely to result in no impacts (PEI 102), regardless of beach condition. For intensities in between, where no consistent behavior was observed, beach conditions must be considered. Because of the propensity for beach conditions to change over short spatial scales, it is important to predict impacts on a local scale. This study established a model with the computational effectiveness to provide such predictions.