Abstract
Key message Genomic prediction of GCA effects based on model training with full-sib rather than half-sib families yields higher short- and long-term selection gain in reciprocal recurrent genomic selection for hybrid breeding, if SCA effects are important. Abstract Reciprocal recurrent genomic selection (RRGS) is a powerful tool for ensuring sustainable selection progress in hybrid breeding. For training the statistical model, one can use half-sib (HS) or full-sib (FS) families produced by inter-population crosses of candidates from the two parent populations. Our objective was to compare HS-RRGS and FS-RRGS for the cumulative selection gain ( $$\Sigma \Delta G$$ Σ Δ G ), the genetic, GCA and SCA variances ( $$\sigma_{G}^{2}$$ σ G 2 , $$\sigma_{gca}^{2}$$ σ gca 2 , $$\sigma_{sca}^{2}$$ σ sca 2 ) of the hybrid population, and prediction accuracy ( $$r_{gca}$$ r gca ) for GCA effects across cycles. Using SNP data from maize and wheat, we simulated RRGS programs over 10 cycles, each consisting of four sub-cycles with genomic selection of $$N_{e} = 20$$ N e = 20 out of 950 candidates in each parent population. Scenarios differed for heritability $$\left( {h^{2} } \right)$$ h 2 and the proportion $$\tau = 100 \times \sigma_{sca}^{2} :\sigma_{G}^{2}$$ τ = 100 × σ sca 2 : σ G 2 of traits, training set (TS) size ( $$N_{TS}$$ N TS ), and maize vs. wheat. Curves of $$\Sigma \Delta G$$ Σ Δ G over selection cycles showed no crossing of both methods. If $$\tau$$ τ was high, $$\Sigma \Delta G$$ Σ Δ G was generally higher for FS-RRGS than HS-RRGS due to higher $$r_{gca}$$ r gca . In contrast, HS-RRGS was superior or on par with FS-RRGS, if $$\tau$$ τ or $$h^{2}$$ h 2 and $$N_{TS}$$ N TS were low. $$\Sigma \Delta G$$ Σ Δ G showed a steeper increase and higher selection limit for scenarios with low $$\tau$$ τ , high $$h^{2}$$ h 2 and large $$N_{TS}$$ N TS . $$\sigma_{gca}^{2}$$ σ gca 2 and even more so $$\sigma_{sca}^{2}$$ σ sca 2 decreased rapidly over cycles for both methods due to the high selection intensity and the role of the Bulmer effect for reducing $$\sigma_{gca}^{2}$$ σ gca 2 . Since the TS for FS-RRGS can additionally be used for hybrid prediction, we recommend this method for achieving simultaneously the two major goals in hybrid breeding: population improvement and cultivar development.