Imaging-Based Outcome Prediction of Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Abstract

We hypothesized that imaging-only-based machine learning algorithms can analyze non-enhanced CT scans of patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This retrospective multicenter cohort study analyzed 520 non-enhanced CT scans and clinical data of patients with acute spontaneous ICH. Clinical outcome at hospital discharge was dichotomized into good outcome and poor outcome using different modified Rankin Scale (mRS) cut-off values. Predictive performance of a random forest machine learning approach based on filter- and texture-derived high-end image features was evaluated for differentiation of functional outcome at mRS 2, 3, and 4. Prediction of survival (mRS ≤ 5) was compared to results of the ICH Score. All models were tuned, validated, and tested in a nested 5-fold cross-validation approach. Receiver-operating-characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of the machine learning classifier using image features only was 0.80 (95% CI [0.77; 0.82]) for predicting mRS ≤ 2, 0.80 (95% CI [0.78; 0.81]) for mRS ≤ 3, and 0.79 (95% CI [0.77; 0.80]) for mRS ≤ 4. Trained on survival prediction (mRS ≤ 5), the classifier reached an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI [0.78; 0.82]) which was equivalent to results of the ICH Score. If combined, the integrated model showed a significantly higher AUC of 0.84 (95% CI [0.83; 0.86], P value <0.05). Accordingly, sensitivities were significantly higher at Youden Index maximum cut-offs (77% vs. 74% sensitivity at 76% specificity, P value <0.05). Machine learning–based evaluation of quantitative high-end image features provided the same discriminatory power in predicting functional outcome as multidimensional clinical scoring systems. The integration of conventional scores and image features had synergistic effects with a statistically significant increase in AUC.

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