Abstract
Enhancing smallholder dairy productivity is critical for improving livelihoods and food security in Ethiopia. This study evaluated the impact of a Lactation Cycle Approach (LCA) intervention, focusing on improved transition cow management, on peak milk yield and projected total lactation milk production. A comprehensive survey was conducted with 2,084 farmers across four major dairy clusters in Ethiopia (Amhara, Northwest Oromia, Southeast Oromia, and Sidama), generating an initial dataset of 198,433 daily milk yield records. Following a rigorous, multi-step quality control protocol, the final dataset for analysis consisted of 100,620 records from 727 Holstein crossbred cows. A linear mixed-effects model revealed that the LCA intervention significantly increased mean peak milk yield in all regions ( p < 0.001), with gains ranging from + 3.4 kg/day in Amhara to + 4.5 kg/day in Northwest Oromia. No significant differences were found by parity or gender of the farm household head. Using the Wood’s Lactation Curve Model, these increases in peak yield were projected to translate to an estimated additional 700–900 kg of milk per cow over a standard 305-day lactation. The results demonstrate that low-cost, management-focused interventions targeting the early lactation period can significantly increase productivity. The LCA presents a viable strategy for dairy extension services to catalyse professionalisation and economic growth within Ethiopia’s smallholder dairy sector.