Impact Analysis of Climate Change, Socioeconomic Development, and Hydropower Generation on Water Availability in the Chitral River Basin Using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model

Abstract

Water, energy, and food are three major issues of concern because of the rapid growth of the population and economy, which are exacerbated by climate change. The disparity between the availability and demand of water is largely driven by domestic and agricultural uses, and it is important to evaluate its impact on hydropower generation. This study aims to integrate climate change, socioeconomic development, and hydropower generation analysis using the water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). This study uses the CMIP6 model to make future projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This study examined the projections of water demand under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) using the MPI-ESM1-2HR climate change model. In the reference year 2000, domestic water demand stood at 15 MCM, escalating to 54 MCM under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Concurrently, agricultural water demand, which was 93.72 MCM in 2000, is projected to surge to 197.35 MCM by 2050. Based on expected future changes in streamflow, the results show that Golen Gol’s hydropower potential varies with the effects of socioeconomic and climatic changes. However, the fluctuation in hydropower generation is more prominent during June and July, leading to an increase in hydropower in future scenarios. The study findings suggest that by 2050, the combination of population growth and agricultural expansion will substantially escalate water demand, posing risks to both the environment and human populations. Consequently, adopting enhanced irrigation methods, refining agricultural techniques, and erecting water conservation and retention infrastructures could effectively mitigate these challenges. To formulate sustainable water management strategies, it is advised to further utilize the integrated water–energy–food nexus approach, strengthened by merging WEAP with the energy modeling program Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) for hydropower generation.

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