A Prioritization Framework for Adaptation Responses for Climate Change-Induced Erosion in Island Beaches—Cases from the Aegean Islands, Greece

Abstract

This contribution presents a new approach for assessing/ranking the vulnerability of beaches to mean and extreme sea level rise at regional (island) scales. It combines socio-economic information with beach erosion projections from morphodynamic models to rank beach vulnerability in a structured, ‘holistic’ manner. It involves the collation of various beach geo-spatial environmental and socio-economic data, which are then combined with erosion projections under different climatic scenarios. A Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities–Threats (SWOT) framework is employed for the indicator selection, and multi-criteria methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process—AHP, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution—TOPSIS, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations—PROMETHEE II) are then used to optimize indicator weights and rank beach vulnerability. Framework implementation in Lesvos and Kos has shown that there will be significant effects of the mean and (particularly) of the extreme sea levels on the carrying capacity and the capability of the beaches to buffer backshore assets, in the absence of appropriate adaptation measures. As the proposed approach relies on widely available information on many of the socio-economic indicators required to assess the beach’s significance/criticality, it can provide a reproducible and transferable methodology that can be applied at different locations and spatial scales.

Bibliographic Information