Regression-Based Networked Virtual Buoy Model for Offshore Wave Height Prediction

Abstract

Accurate wave height measurements are critical for offshore wind farm operations, marine navigation, and environmental monitoring. Wave buoys provide essential real-time data; however, their reliability is compromised by harsh marine conditions, resulting in frequent data gaps due to sensor failures, maintenance issues, or extreme weather events. These disruptions pose significant risks for decision-making in offshore logistics and safety planning. While numerical wave models and machine learning techniques have been explored for wave height prediction, most approaches rely heavily on historical data from the same buoy, limiting their applicability when the target sensor is offline. This study addresses these limitations by developing a virtual wave buoy model using a network-based data-driven approach with Random Forest Regression (RFR). By leveraging wave height measurements from surrounding buoys, the proposed model ensures continuous wave height estimation even in the case of malfunctioning physical sensors. The methodology is tested across four offshore sites, including operational wind farms, evaluating the sensitivity of predictions to buoy placement and feature selection. The model demonstrates high accuracy and incorporates a k-nearest neighbors (kNN) imputation strategy to mitigate data loss. These findings establish RFR as a scalable and computationally efficient alternative for virtual sensing, thereby enhancing offshore wind farm resilience, marine safety, and operational efficiency.

Bibliographic Information