An Exploratory Assessment of a Submarine Topographic Characteristic Index for Predicting Extreme Flow Velocities: A Case Study of Typhoon In−Fa in the Zhoushan Sea Area

Abstract

This study analyzes the 96 h flow velocity time series data from the Zhoushan Sea during Typhoon In−fa to investigate the conditions for extreme flow velocities. Through force analysis of the unit fluid and statistical analysis of topographic features, we identified the critical water depth, slope, and sea surface width for extreme flow velocities under ideal conditions as 15 m, 4.5°, and 2000 m, respectively. The Submarine Topographic Characteristic Index (STCI) is introduced for the first time in this study, revealing its significant impact on extreme flow velocities. Three types of “extreme velocity points”—associated with constant storm surge, astronomical tide, and typhoon storm surge—were defined, occurring over 85% of the time during typhoon events. These extreme velocity points were analyzed in relation to their topographic characteristics, including water depth, slope, and sea surface width. Simulations of Typhoon In−fa in the Zhoushan Sea area were used to construct the STCI model, resulting in the following weightings: water depth = 0.96, slope = 0.39, and sea surface width = 0.49. Typhoon In−fa occurred in 2021, exhibited a maximum wind speed of approximately 35 m/s, and played a key role in the hydrodynamic processes investigated in this study. Validation with Typhoons Muifa (2021) and Bebinca (2413) confirmed the model’s high consistency. The STCI model provides insight into the occurrence of extreme velocities, categorizing them according to tidal phase and typhoon influence. Preliminary findings indicate the model’s applicability under varying typhoon intensities, offering a robust tool for predicting extreme seabed flow velocities during typhoon events.

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