Risk Assessment of International Seabed Mining Implementing the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

The international seabed area (“the Area”) harbors abundant metal mineral resources that are critical to address global metal supply–demand and sustainable development. However, exploitation of mineral resources in the Area faces complex risks spanning politics, economy, technology, science, environment, society, industry, and law. No commercial-scale deep-sea mining operations have been conducted to date. Systematic risk identification and prioritization can inform strategic planning for stakeholders. This study employs literature analysis and an 80-expert questionnaire to identify key risk factors affecting mineral exploitation in the Area. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we quantitatively assess the relative importance and weightings of these risks. Our results indicate that Level 1 risk groups prioritize (1) policy and public opinion risk, (2) extended continental shelf (ECS) delineation risk, (3) high sea marine protected areas (HSMPAs) establishment risk, and (4) mining area economic value risk. The five most critical Level 2 risk factors are (i) policy changes in contractor states, (ii) ECS-mining area boundary conflicts, (iii) environmental provisions in exploitation regulations at the international seabed (ER), (iv) ER implementation delays, and (v) mineral resource uncertainty. These findings provide actionable insights for contractors, policymakers, and stakeholders to optimize decision making in deep-sea mining projects.

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