Abstract
Antarctic navigation encounters substantial challenges due to the dynamic and perilous characteristics of sea ice, which pose threats to vessel safety and operational efficiency. Existing risk assessment methodologies frequently lack real-time adaptability, while strategies for icebreaker convoys remain insufficiently quantified. To address these deficiencies, this study introduces an integrated framework that combines satellite-based sea ice monitoring, operational risk prediction, and icebreaker escort optimization. First, polar research routes and hydrographic conditions are systematically analyzed to enhance navigation planning. Second, a risk assessment system is developed by leveraging satellite-derived sea ice density and thickness data, facilitating a near-real-time hazard assessment (subject to satellite data latency) evaluation with 96.3% accuracy in ice type classification and a 15% improvement in risk prediction precision compared to conventional methods. Finally, kinematic safety criteria for icebreaker-escorted convoys are established, specifying speed-dependent distance thresholds to minimize collision risks, achieving optimal speeds of 1.4–2.3 knots for PC3-class vessels and 10–20% speed improvements for escorted vessels in cleared channels. The findings offer actionable insights into polar route optimization, risk mitigation, and safe ice navigation protocols, thereby directly supporting operational decision making in Antarctic waters.