Satellite-Based Analysis of Nutrient Dynamics in Northern South China Sea Marine Ranching Under the Combined Effects of Climate Warming and Anthropogenic Activities

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of long-term nutrient dynamics in the northern South China Sea (NSCS), a region that hosts the world’s largest marine ranching cluster and serves as a cornerstone of China’s “Blue Granary” initiative. By integrating multi-sensor satellite remote sensing data (Landsat and Sentinel-2, 2002–2024) with in situ observations, we developed robust retrieval algorithms for total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), achieving high accuracy (TN: R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.09 mg/L; TP: R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 0.0071 mg/L; n = 63). Results showed that TP concentrations increased significantly faster than TN, leading to a decline in the TN:TP ratio (NP) from 19.2 to 13.2 since 2013. This shift indicates a transition from phosphorus (P) limitation to nitrogen (N) limitation, driven by warming sea surface temperatures (SST) (about 1.16 °C increase) and increased anthropogenic phosphorus inputs (about 27.84% increase). The satellite-based framework offers a scalable, cost-effective solution for monitoring aquaculture water quality. When integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, these near-real-time nutrient anomaly data can support early warning of harmful algal blooms (HABs), offering key insights for ecosystem-based management and climate adaptation. Overall, our findings highlight the utility of remote sensing in advancing sustainable marine resource governance amid environmental change.

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