DSformer for Ship Motion Prediction: A Statistics-Driven Framework with Environment-Adaptive Hyperparameter Tuning

Abstract

Given the central importance of maritime logistics to global trade, accurate and efficient vessel motion forecasting is essential for strengthening supply chain resilience and improving operational efficiency. However, traditional physical and statistical models often fail to effectively capture the multivariate, noisy, and strongly coupled nature of maritime dynamics. In this manuscript, we adapt the DSformer architecture for ship motion forecasting, leveraging its dual sampling and dual-attention design to address the multi-scale and cross-variable dependencies inherent in maritime data. Across three real-world datasets, the adapted DSformer reduces prediction error by 23% and training time by 70% compared with 13 state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines. Moreover, we identify a consistent relationship between sampling strategies and sea states, where dense sampling performs best under stable conditions, whereas moderately sparse sampling with multi-head attention improves robustness under turbulent environments. These results apply the algorithm’s new capabilities to the daily management of maritime logistics. By adapting the architecture to real-world operational settings and optimizing its key parameters, the approach enables efficient, real-time vessel forecasting and decision support across global supply chains.

Bibliographic Information