Wave Climate Dynamics of a Morphologically Complex Coast: A Hybrid Downscaling Study of Manzanillo, Mexico

Abstract

A comprehensive characterization of the wave climate on the coast at Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico, based on an 11-year hindcast (2008–2018), was performed using a hybrid approach that integrates hydrodynamic numerical models with machine learning techniques. Wave conditions were analyzed at 23 nearshore sites, including headlands, outer beaches, and sheltered beaches. The effects of the complex coastal morphology on wave propagation were evident, especially regarding storm waves. Two distinct wave climates were seen: a low-energy regime in the dry season (November–April) and a more energetic regime in the rainy season (May–October). Spatial variability was greatly modulated by headlands, bays, and port infrastructure, leading to sharp local contrasts in wave height, slope, and wave power. For instance, mean wave power ranged from 9.34 kW/m at exposed sites such as El Faro de Campos to only 0.36 kW/m near sheltered areas, such as San Pedrito beach. From these findings, it is clear that a regional scale description of the wave climate is insufficient when assessing coastal vulnerability in this morphologically complex area. The new dataset is a valuable baseline for use in coastal management, port planning, and risk assessments for Manzanillo, which is one of Mexico’s most important ports.

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