Abstract
Accurate prediction of a ship’s Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is of great significance for port scheduling, logistics management, and navigation safety. Traditional ETA prediction approaches often rely on manual experience for parameter tuning, which tends to be inefficient and susceptible to subjective factors. To address this issue and improve prediction accuracy, this study proposes a hybrid modeling framework, integrating Bayesian Optimization (BO), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. In this approach, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is leveraged to predict the total voyage duration before departure, thereby deriving the vessel’s ETA. The model, referred to as BO-CNN-LSTM, utilizes BO for automatic hyperparameter tuning, employs CNN for extracting local features, and applies LSTM network to capture temporal dependencies. The model is developed using a dataset of 32,972 distinct voyage records, among which 23,947 are retained as valid samples after data cleaning. Pearson correlation analysis is conducted to select key input variables, including navigation speed, ship type, sailing distance, and deadweight tonnage. Additionally, sailing distance is processed using the Ramer–Douglas–Peucker algorithm. Experimental evaluation indicates that the BO-CNN-LSTM model achieves a coefficient of determination of 0.987, along with a mean absolute error and root mean square error of 6.078 and 8.730, respectively. These results significantly outperform comparison models such as CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, random forest, AdaBoost, and Elman neural networks. Overall, this study validates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed BO-CNN-LSTM model in ship ETA prediction, providing an efficient and effective prediction solution for intelligent maritime transportation systems.