Multi-Scale Temporal Uncertainty-Aware Hierarchical Adaptive Ensemble for Intelligent Ship Emission Monitoring and Prediction

Abstract

This paper presents a novel Multi-Scale Temporal Uncertainty-aware Hierarchical Adaptive Ensemble (MSTU-HAE) algorithm for intelligent ship emission monitoring and prediction in maritime environmental compliance applications. The maritime shipping industry contributes approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions and significant amounts of nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides, necessitating advanced predictive monitoring systems. The proposed MSTU-HAE algorithm integrates three key innovations: multi-scale temporal feature extraction using causal convolutions at short-term (5 samples), medium-term (20 samples), and long-term (60 samples) windows; gas-specific attention mechanisms that automatically weight temporal scales based on individual emission gas characteristics; and three-level hierarchical uncertainty quantification encompassing individual model uncertainty, ensemble disagreement, and regulatory compliance risk assessment. Experimental validation was conducted using emission data collected from a fishing vessel over 3 operational days (1732 original samples), augmented to 17,320 samples via controlled replication with noise injection to support model training. Rigorous temporal data splitting with 70%/15%/15% train/validation/test partitioning ensures no data leakage. Comparative analysis against six baseline methods (XGBoost, LSBoost, AdaBoost, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors) demonstrates that MSTU-HAE achieves superior average performance, with R2 = 0.9670 and NSE = 0.9670 across all emission gases. This research contributes a robust, interpretable, and scalable prediction framework that advances the state of the art in maritime environmental monitoring through novel algorithmic innovations in temporal feature learning and uncertainty quantification.

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