Voyage-Level Assessment of Slow Steaming and B30 Biofuel Strategies for Container Vessel Decarbonisation Under EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime

Abstract

This study evaluates operational decarbonisation options for container vessels operating under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime. This study analyses a 5000 TEU post-Panamax container vessel on the Rotterdam–Limassol route under nine operational scenarios combining three operating speeds (24, 21, and 19 kn) with three fuel configurations (HFO, MGO, and a B30 biofuel blend). The assessment included voyage-level fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI), Tank-to-Wake (TTW) greenhouse-gas intensity, fuel cost, EU ETS exposure, Pareto trade-off analysis, and Monte Carlo uncertainty evaluation. Pareto analysis reduced the nine evaluated scenarios to three representative low-speed operating configurations corresponding to minimum cost (HFO, 19 kn), intermediate emissions reduction (MGO, 19 kn), and minimum emissions (B30, 19 kn). Among these configurations, the B30 case produced the lowest TTW GHG-intensity and EEOI values, whereas the HFO case remained the least-cost option under current market conditions. The break-even assessment indicates that B30 becomes cost-competitive with HFO slow steaming only at carbon prices of approximately 754 EUR/tCO2 under reference market conditions—substantially above current EU ETS levels (50–80 EUR/tCO2). Sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the B30 price from 900 USD/t to 720 USD/t lowers this threshold to approximately 406 EUR/tCO2. The results quantify the current economic gap for transitional biofuels under the EU ETS alone and highlight the complementary role of FuelEU Maritime lifecycle incentives. Key limitations include TTW-based emissions accounting and steady-state operational assumptions.

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