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Estimating spatially variable and density‐dependent survival using open‐population spatial capture–recapture models

Cyril Milleret; Soumen Dey; Pierre Dupont; Henrik Brøseth; Daniel Turek; Perry de Valpine; Richard Bischof
Ecology · Vol. 104, Issue 2 · 2023

Abstract

Open‐population spatial capture–recapture (OPSCR) models use the spatial information contained in individual detections collected over multiple consecutive occasions to estimate not only occasion‐specific density, but also demographic parameters. OPSCR models can also estimate spatial variation in vital rates, but such models are neither widely used nor thoroughly tested. We developed a Bayesian OPSCR model that not only accounts for spatial variation in survival using spatial covariates but also estimates local density‐dependent effects on survival within a unified framework. Using simulations, we show that OPSCR models provide sound inferences on the effect of spatial covariates on survival, including multiple competing sources of mortality, each with potentially different spatial determinants. Estimation of local density‐dependent survival was possible but required more data due to the greater complexity of the model. Not accounting for spatial heterogeneity in survival led to up to 10% positive bias in abundance estimates. We provide an empirical demonstration of the model by estimating the effect of country and density on cause‐specific mortality of female wolverines ( Gulo gulo ) in central Sweden and Norway. The ability to make population‐level inferences on spatial variation in survival is an essential step toward a fully spatially explicit OPSCR model capable of disentangling the role of multiple spatial drivers of population dynamics.

Bibliographic Information

JournalEcology
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2023-02-01
Publication Year2023
Volume104
Issue2
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN0012-9658
eISSN1939-9170
DOI10.1002/ecy.3934
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1997-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/19399170
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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