Global Fire Emissions Linked to Madden-Julian Oscillation

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards. However, the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain. Here, we show that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections. Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability, with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events. MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20% of total midlatitude fire events, suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future, fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.

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