Polar Winter Processes: An Under-Represented Research Focus within the Coupled Earth System

Abstract

Observing winter processes during the extended cold season is crucial not only for understanding polar and global coupled Earth system but also for enhancing capability of year-round prediction, especially in the context of Arctic amplification and the drastic decrease in sea ice extent and thickness at both poles. However, harsh environmental conditions and logistical challenges have left polar winter Earth system processes substantially under-observed compared with those during summer. This disparity creates major obstacles for studying these processes and their roles in shaping the state and variability of the Earth systems, as well as for accurately simulating them in Earth System Models (ESMs). Consequently, these limitations introduce considerable uncertainties in ESMs regarding the understanding, prediction, and projection of Earth system variability and changes. This study discusses key polar winter processes and evaluates critical knowledge gaps. It identifies three urgent research priorities for the near future: (i) sources, properties, and transport of polar winter aerosols and their interactions with clouds; (ii) polar storms and their interactions with the underlying sea ice and ocean; and (iii) persistent discrepancies in understanding and predicting large-scale teleconnections between polar regions and lower latitudes. To address these priorities, this perspective recommends strengthening coordinated, winter-focused, international and multidisciplinary observational efforts, for example, through initiatives such as the Fifth International Polar Year and the ongoing international Antarctica InSync programme. These initiatives would lay groundwork for designing future sustainable winter process observations.

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