Journal Article
Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species
Ryan A. Chisholm; Richard Condit; K. Abd. Rahman; Patrick J. Baker; Sarayudh Bunyavejchewin; Yu‐Yun Chen; George Chuyong; H. S. Dattaraja; Stuart Davies; Corneille E. N. Ewango; C. V. S. Gunatilleke; I. A. U. Nimal Gunatilleke; Stephen Hubbell; David Kenfack; Somboon Kiratiprayoon; Yiching Lin; Jean‐Remy Makana; Nantachai Pongpattananurak; Sandeep Pulla; Ruwan Punchi‐Manage; Raman Sukumar; Sheng‐Hsin Su; I‐Fang Sun; H. S. Suresh; Sylvester Tan; Duncan Thomas; Sandra Yap
Ecology Letters · Vol. 17, Issue 7 · pp. 855-865 · 2014
Abstract
Long‐term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6–28 years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross‐site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species‐rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.