Abstract
Understanding the role of consumers in density‐dependent plant population dynamics is a long‐standing goal in ecology. However, the generality of herbivory effects across heterogeneous landscapes is poorly understood due to the pervasive influence of context‐dependence. We tested effects of native insect herbivory on the population dynamics of an exotic thistle, Cirsium vulgare , in a field experiment replicated across eight sites in eastern Nebraska. Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and density‐dependent population models, we found potential for explosive low‐density population growth (λ > 5) and complex density fluctuations under herbivore exclusion. However, herbivore access drove population decline (λ