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Pathogen transport amplifies or dilutes disease transmission depending on the host dose‐response relationship

Wee Hao Ng; Christopher R. Myers; Scott H. McArt; Stephen P. Ellner
Ecology Letters · Vol. 25, Issue 2 · pp. 453-465 · 2022

Abstract

Pathogen transport by biotic or abiotic processes (e.g. mechanical vectors, wind, rain) can increase disease transmission by creating more opportunities for host exposure. But transport without replication has an inherent trade‐off, that creating new venues for exposure decreases the average pathogen abundance at each venue. The host dose‐response relationship is therefore required to correctly assess infection risk. We model and analyse two examples—biotic mechanical vectors in plant–pollinator networks, and abiotic‐facilitated long‐distance pathogen dispersal—to illustrate how oversimplifying the dose‐response relationship can lead to incorrect epidemiological predictions. When the minimum infective dose is high, mechanical vectors amplify disease transmission less than suggested by simple compartment models, and may even dilute transmission. When long‐distance dispersal leads to infrequent large exposures, models that assume a linear force of infection can substantially under‐predict the speed of epidemic spread. Our work highlights an important general interplay between dose‐response relationships and pathogen transport.

Bibliographic Information

JournalEcology Letters
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2022-02-01
Publication Year2022
Volume25
Issue2
Pages453-465
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN1461-023X
eISSN1461-0248
DOI10.1111/ele.13932
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1998-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14610248
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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