Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change

Abstract

Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long‐term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi‐natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate‐driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm‐adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold‐adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping‐stone patches could thus allow warm‐adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.

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