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Journal Article

The Equilibrium Conundrum

Tess N. Grainger; Keila Stark; Chuliang Song; Matthew A. Barbour; Rachel M. Germain
Ecology Letters · Vol. 28, Issue 11 · 2025

Abstract

The idea that natural systems tend to be at equilibrium dates back to the origin of the field of ecology and continues to underlie most ecological theory. However, empirical evidence for equilibrium dynamics in nature and in experiments is surprisingly elusive. Here, we address this conundrum by first exploring the history of equilibrium in ecological theory and the evidence for equilibrium dynamics in natural systems. We then search the literature to quantify how empiricists deal with equilibrium in their research and address barriers to integrating the concept of equilibrium into empirical work by providing step‐by‐step instructions for determining whether a population is at equilibrium. Next, we lay out three ways that equilibrium is embedded in theory, and for each, outline when meeting the equilibrium assumption in empirical tests is critical for scientific inference, and when it may be possible to relax this assumption. And finally, we present concrete steps that empiricists and theoreticians can each take in order to meet in the middle when it comes to equilibrium. We hope that this paper will stimulate new discussions from researchers from across the theory‐empirical divide about this longstanding issue.

Bibliographic Information

JournalEcology Letters
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2025-11-01
Publication Year2025
Volume28
Issue11
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN1461-023X
eISSN1461-0248
DOI10.1111/ele.70232
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1998-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14610248
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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