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Journal Article

General Predictions for the Effects of Warming on Competition

Kaleigh E. Davis; Tess N. Grainger; Po‐Ju Ke; Patrick L. Thompson; Mary I. O'Connor; Joey R. Bernhardt
Ecology Letters · Vol. 29, Issue 6 · 2026

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change on ecological communities has been limited by a lack of general theory for how temperature affects competition. To fill this knowledge gap, we integrated Modern Coexistence Theory and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology by incorporating empirically derived temperature sensitivities into Modern Coexistence Theory's central model. We then simulated warming in consumer‐resource systems and found that warming reduced both niche and fitness differences, making species more ecologically similar and competitive interactions more neutral. The greatest shifts in competition occurred when temperature sensitivities among species were highly asymmetrical. Effects of warming on competition via niche differences were comparable to those on fitness differences, suggesting that the emphasis on vital rates in global change research may overlook key biodiversity drivers. This general theory expands the domains of two prominent ecological theories and provides predictions for how warming may alter competition even in benign regions of species' thermal niches.

Bibliographic Information

JournalEcology Letters
PublisherWiley
Publication Date2026-06-01
Publication Year2026
Volume29
Issue6
Document TypeJournal Article
Print ISSN1461-023X
eISSN1461-0248
DOI10.1111/ele.70395
SubjectEcology & Organismal Biology

Access Information

NARA Access Coverage1998-01-01~Current
Journal Homepagehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14610248
Publisher PageOpen Publisher Page
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