Navigating Future Waters: The Resilience of the Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Under Climate Change

Abstract

Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT) is an ecologically and economically valuable species. As global warming drives marine species toward cooler or deeper waters, ABFT distributions are expected to shift, potentially disrupting predator–prey dynamics and fisheries interactions. This study models future habitat suitability for ABFT, its primary prey (as a proxy for food availability), and the drifting longline fishery that targets adult ABFT under three climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5). Results indicate a poleward shift in ABFT distribution, with habitat losses in tropical regions and gains in boreal zones. Prey species show similar trends, increasing spatial overlap with ABFT in higher latitudes while decreasing in tropical areas. These boreal regions may act as climate refugia and bright spots , with a projected 15% increase in prey overlap by century's end. However, ABFT key spawning grounds—the Mediterranean Sea and Gulf of Mexico—are projected to become significantly less suitable for adults, with habitat suitability declining by up to 27% and 73%, respectively, threatening reproductive success. Meanwhile, overlap with the drifting longline fishery may decline by 4%, unless fishing efforts also shift poleward. Regions such as Greenland and northern Europe may become increasingly important for ABFT persistence and expansion. These distributional changes could challenge current international agreements and quota systems, underscoring the need for adaptive, climate‐resilient management strategies.

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