Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon

Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect the flow regime, cause loss of habitat, change community composition and behavioural habits of fish. This study assessed the impact of climate change on ecologically relevant streamflow conditions for fish migration and spawning in the Vistula and the Odra river basins. Streamflow simulations obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT ) for the historical period and two future horizons were driven by nine bias‐corrected EURO ‐ CORDEX Regional Climate Models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This study identified a subset of Indicators of Hydrological Alteration ( IHA ) that are relevant for pike, Esox lucius L., chub, Squalius cephalus (L.), and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. IHA indicators were calculated and compared for different scenarios. An index‐based framework identified that all considered species will be impacted by climate change, with Atlantic salmon facing the largest impact. The model's uncertainty was addressed through an aggregation method that assessed inconsistencies in the model's response.

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