Abstract
The brown shrimp C. crangon supports a large commercial fishery in British, Belgian, Dutch, German and Danish waters. It produces eggs throughout the year with two seasonal peaks in summer and winter, respectively. Uncertainty exists with regard to the relative importance of the two egg production seasons for the mass invasion of juvenile recruits of 10–20 mm length in May/June, which is the dominant seasonal signal in the German and Dutch Wadden Sea, and which is presumed to grow into the exploitable stock by the autumn, causing the typical rise of commercial catches at that time of the year. A simulation model was developed that predicts the daily abundance of juvenile recruits attaining a given length, typically in the range of 10–20 mm. The model uses: (i) experimental data on the development times of eggs and larvae and the growth rates of juveniles; (ii) field data on the seasonal temperature cycle in different years (1986, 1992 and 1993 or mean conditions) and areas (German and Dutch Wadden Sea) of the North Sea; and (iii) a calculated index of the relative seasonal egg production intensity of adult C. crangon . Predictions of the simulations are compared with field observations on the seasonal occurrence of juvenile recruits in the German and Dutch Wadden Sea. Using temperature data from German waters, in the simulations peak recruitment was predicted to occur 1–2 months later than that observed in the field. However, if seasonal temperature data from Dutch waters were used, the predicted time of the first mass occurrence of recruits matched the field observations more closely. Simulations revealed that the first mass invasion of juveniles originates almost entirely from the winter egg production. It was also found that the simulated recruitment is condensed into a peak, which is narrower after a cold winter.