Abstract
As biodiversity continues to decline amid the global extinction crisis, ex-situ management, including breeding animals in captivity for release, is becoming increasingly utilised. However, these programs represent significant investments, with no guarantee of success. It is often uncertain whether a conservation breeding program could effectively contribute to species recovery. We review two large, long-term conservation breeding programs to develop a population model for the critically endangered swift parrot ( Lathamus discolor ). We use a population viability analysis to construct a theoretical captive breeding program to investigate the role a breeding and release program might play in delaying the current extinction trajectory. We modelled how different sized programs could supply individuals for release to supplement the wild population to generate expectations on the timeframe, release numbers, and costs involved. The modelled programs could maintain the wild population of swift parrots at low levels (