Abstract
The management of Baltic sprat is challenged by highly variable recruitment success and hence large stock fluctuations. Recent studies have identified the larval and early juvenile life stages to be critical for the survival rate of a sprat year class. Although prey abundance was found to be linked to larval survival success, an analysis identifying the functional relationship and relative importance of other environmental factors is still missing. Sprat larval feeding was investigated in 2002 during three cruises, covering the main spawning time in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. The aim of the study was to identify the key environmental factors determining the feeding success of larval sprat taking their potential interactions explicitly into account. An extension of generalized additive models (GAMs) was adopted that allows the inclusion of interaction terms in a non‐parametric regression model. The final model of sprat larval feeding success explained ∼80% of the variance in the data and was based on the following environmental factors: bottom depth, cubed wind speed as proxy for small‐scale turbulence rates, degree of cloudiness as proxy for light conditions and prey density in combination with a feeding period–cloudiness interaction term. Our study demonstrates that the feeding success of sprat larvae in the Baltic Sea is controlled by a number of simultaneously acting key environmental factors.