Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

Abstract

We investigated the effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). Based on generalized additive models, we (i) modelled the optimal spawning habitat of mackerel in the sGSL using daily egg production (DEP) in June, (ii) predicted known and new potential present spawning habitats in the GSL and the north‐west Atlantic, and (iii) assessed how they respond to future climate change. Our findings showed that both mackerel presence–absence and given‐presence DEP were associated with sea surface temperature (10–16.5°C), salinity above 31 and depth

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