Spatiotemporal variability in the phenology of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster ( Homarus americanus Milne Edwards, 1837) and its relationship with bottom temperatures in a changing Gulf of Maine

Abstract

This study uses the Maine Department of Marine Resources Lobster Sea Sampling data (2000–2016) and logistic models to develop the first time series for the timing and suddenness of onset of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster in the Gulf of Maine (GoM), an annual fishery recruitment event crucial to fishermen. Data from three GoM regions (eastern, central, and western coastal Maine) were further divided by sex and estimated maturity of sampled lobsters for analysis. We found differences in the patterns of initial molt timing and suddenness between the regions, sexes, and stages of maturity. Using the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecasting System hindcast temperatures, seasonal accumulated degrees above 5°C were used to describe the thermal history for each region at ocean depths of about 5 and 110 m. These temperature metrics were used in generalized linear models to investigate the potential effects of seasonal temperatures on the initial molt season. Results showed that initial intra‐annual molting of lobsters was variable from 2000 to 2016, with periods of both earlier and more sudden molts and later and more protracted molts. Warmer temperatures, specifically inshore temperatures, were generally associated with an earlier molt, but without complete uniformity in the direction and magnitude across seasons, regions, and lobster demographics. We also discuss why developing molt time series and quantifying the connection to the bottom temperatures are necessary and emphasized why existing monitoring programs and the applied quantification techniques herein make this relationship difficult to quantify.

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