Abstract
Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates. We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal distributions where the means and genetic variances of current and future populations are determined from genecological models derived from seedling common garden studies. The risk of maladaptation was large for most traits when compared with the risk associated with current transfers within seed zones, particularly for the more drastic climate change scenario. For example, the proportion of nonoverlap for a composite trait representing bud set, emergence, growth, and root : shoot ratio was as high as 0.90. We recommend augmenting within‐population variation by mixing local populations with some proportion of populations from lower elevations and further south. Populations expected to be adapted to climates a century from now come from locations as far down in elevation as 450–1130 m and as far south in latitude as 1.8–4.9°.