Abstract
Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short‐term responses to climate variability and longer‐term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade‐long experiment, we compare effects of short‐term and long‐term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long‐term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short‐term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long‐term trajectories from short‐term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses.