Abstract
Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster ( Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young‐of‐year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth‐wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage‐specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.