Journal Article
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
Manon Clairbaux; William W. L. Cheung; Paul Mathewson; Warren Porter; Nicolas Courbin; Jérôme Fort; Hallvard Strøm; Børge Moe; Per Fauchald; Sebastien Descamps; Hálfdán Helgason; Vegard S. Bråthen; Benjamin Merkel; Tycho Anker‐Nilssen; Ingar S. Bringsvor; Olivier Chastel; Signe Christensen‐Dalsgaard; Jóhannis Danielsen; Francis Daunt; Nina Dehnhard; Kjell‐Einar Erikstad; Alexeï Ezhov; Maria Gavrilo; Yuri Krasnov; Magdalene Langset; Svein‐Håkon Lorentsen; Mark Newell; Bergur Olsen; Tone Kirstin Reiertsen; Geir Systad; Þorkell L. Þórarinsson; Mark Baran; Tony Diamond; Annette L. Fayet; Michelle G. Fitzsimmons; Morten Frederiksen; Grant H. Gilchrist; Tim Guilford; Nicholas P. Huffeldt; Mark Jessopp; Kasper L. Johansen; Amy L. Kouwenberg; Jannie F. Linnebjerg; Laura McFarlane Tranquilla; Mark Mallory; Flemming R. Merkel; William Montevecchi; Anders Mosbech; Aevar Petersen; David Grémillet
Global Change Biology · Vol. 27, Issue 7 · pp. 1457-1469 · 2021
Abstract
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to Alle alle , Fratercula arctica , Uria aalge , Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla ) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine‐protected areas in a changing ocean.