Occupancy trends of overwintering coastal waterbird communities reveal guild‐specific patterns of redistribution and shifting reliance on existing protected areas

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic stressors are redistributing species and altering community composition globally. Protected areas (PAs) may not sufficiently protect populations of species undergoing distributional shifts, necessitating that we evaluate existing PAs and identify areas for future protection to conserve biodiversity across regional and temporal scales. Coastal waterbirds are important indicators of marine ecosystem health, representing mobile, long‐lived, higher trophic‐level consumers. Using a 20‐year citizen science dataset (1999–2019) with a before‐after control‐intervention sampling framework for habitat protection, we applied dynamic occupancy models to assess winter occupancy trends along the Pacific coast of Canada. Specifically, we sought to understand potential drivers of regional declines, spatial commonalities among guilds, and changes in habitat use before and after PA designation, as well as between PAs and non‐PAs. Occupancy trends varied regionally, with greater declines in the south compared to the north. Regional differences underlined potential range shifts, particularly for species with traits linked to temperature tolerance, movement, and high productivity foraging, as cold‐tolerant, migratory benthivores and piscivores wintered farther north relative to 20 years ago or retreated to cold‐water fjords. While 21 of 57 (36.8%) species responded positively to PA designation (before‐after), greater occupancy declines tended to occur in PAs established pre‐1999 relative to non‐PAs (control‐intervention). Since PAs are currently concentrated in the south, negative associations were most apparent for species retreating northward, but existing PAs may have a stabilizing or transitory effect on southern wintering species shifting into the region from farther south. We emphasize that conservation strategies must balance persistence of current communities with preserving the climate‐adapted biodiversity of tomorrow by accounting for community‐level effects of species moving into and out of existing PAs. Incorporating range shifts into PA planning by predicting distributional changes will allow conservation practitioners to identify priority habitats, such as cold‐water refugia, for persistent wildlife communities.

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